To all my data-head friends out there, let’s take a look at the numbers!!  We’re in the middle of the summer “high” selling season and darn it, we still don’t have enough houses to meet demand!  We’re a tenth of a point above last month’s inventory – hovering right at 1.1.  So if no new houses came on the market tomorrow, it would take 1.1 month to sell off all the available homes.  Mind you, that’s theoretical.  Some homes are priced too high…  Remember, this one:  Sellers set the List Price and Buyers set the Selling Price.  Thanks Eileen O’Reilly! J  My SF colleague.

What’s interesting though is that the exuberant pricing is showing some signs of waning.  There’s been some price drops going on with sellers understanding that buyers aren’t going to over-pay even with too few homes to select from.  Zillow is already seeing some slowing trends in the Bay Area. They are predicting the following price growth over the next year (6% year over year is normal appreciation):

Price Appreciation

Bay Area

PAST year

NEXT year

Median Price
Fremont 5.4% 1.5% $942,400
Concord

8.0%

1.9% $549,800
San Jose

4.6%

2.3% $827,880

San Mateo

8.7% 1.5% $1,098,500

San Francisco

5.5%

1.5%

$1,192,500

Sacramento Area

PAST Year

NEXT Year

Median Price

Sacramento

10.9%

6.2% $299,200
Roseville 7.9% 5.0% $419,900
El Dorado Hills

8.7%

5.1% $602,500

Elk Grove

8.7%

5.0% $393,500

Folsom

6.5%

4.4%

$519,000

source:  Zillow 2017

In all cases, the projections for price appreciation are slowing but what’s important is that pricing is cooling more rapidly in the Bay Area first and that likely is going to slow some movement into our area and affect our prices.  Hey, Zillow doesn’t have a crystal ball.  They run their algorithms and they project based on how prices behave in certain months (among other things and they have access to a lot more data than I do!) – but here’s Jane’s caveat:  Real Estate is not very predictable (like the stock market).  We do know that as with business cycles, real estate has up years and down years. If you look at the appreciation we’ve experienced this past year with almost all above the average year, that’s telling.  We could be looking at a correction OR we could be continuing to climb stratospheric a while longer.  In flight parlance, we could be in for a stall at some point.  On the other hand, a continued lack of inventory, lower interest rates, and strong demand still drive price appreciation.

A couple more items of interest…houses are generally selling faster.  In the tri-county area of Sacramento/Placer/El Dorado Hills houses under $800k:

Listing #17042393 – $439,000 – 2025 Taft Dr, Rocklin, CA 95765-5860

DOM:  Shorter time on market. Only an average of 18 days in June versus 34 in January.

New Listings:  Fewer!  In June, there were 2,457 new listings which was 84 fewer than May!  Sold:  Less Sold.  54 fewer sold in June (1,919) than May (1,973).

 

For the luxury market (above $800k),

Listing #17029743 – $2,375,000 – 4441 Gresham Dr, El Dorado Hills, CA 95762-7640

Inventory:  Normal balanced market.  There’s 4.8 months of inventory.

DOM:  Shorter time on market here too.  The average days on market dropped to 45 from 60 in May.

New Listings:  There were only 197 new homes coming on the market in this category last month and 119 sold.

Average Price:  Softened.  The average price went down infinitesimally (0.3%) from $1,395,000 to $1,391,000 and up from a year ago by 5.1%.

Whatever your home buying or selling needs (even if you want more data), I’m happy to help…just ask.

Upcoming topic:  A series on inherited real property. Interviews with a CPA, Lawyer, and Financial Planner will enlighten us to the highlights and stumbling blocks.  If you’re interested in a particular topic, let me know.  I love to do the research because even if I already am familiar with the topic, I invariably find something new and interesting and I love to pass on those insights to my readers.  🙂

Summer Reading Recommendations:

For the data geeks among us:  Algorithms to Live By  I’m about 1/3 of the way through on Audible and I’m going to buy the physical book because there’s a lot of detail.  Pretty interesting though and very applicable to real estate!  It confirmed my notion that people need to see more than one house to know that they’ve found the one!

Mindset – The basic premise of this book is blatantly obvious, but I found that it’s an important reminder and teaching insight for kids and young adults that effort and not natural talent accounts for much of the success in life.

For a thriller with some interesting parallels to world happenings, The Spy Across the Table.