What IS the Market Doing?

Jane Gray
Jane Gray
Published on September 14, 2018

  It’s that time of year when the market slows a bit before it tries to crawl into hibernation.  There’s a kicker this year though.  It started slowing before now.  We’ve been seeing some price drops and longer days on market.  Buyers aren’t jumping on the bandwagon as fast.  Does that mean our merry days of multiple offers are over?  No.  We’re still seeing that too.   There’s lots of factors at play so let’s talk about what’s pushing the pause button.  Interest rates are still going up gradually.  Homes coming on the market can be priced a little too high reflecting early Spring’s exuberance.  The leading voices for the housing market are telling us that wage growth isn’t keeping up with the run up in housing prices so it’s leaving some on the sidelines.  Then there’s the problem with inventory – it’s gotten better by a month but it’s not a one-size fits all.   Here’s an interesting stat for you:  10,000 people are retiring every month now and over 15,000 are turning 65 every month according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  I talk to a lot of Baby Boomers who are considering a move and they do move the dial en masse.  There’s a sizable portion that are wanting to move out of state – I’ve heard Idaho, Texas, Tennessee.  They might have changed their minds about the Carolinas about now… Let’s just take a look at the numbers from August: We’re still in a Seller’s market:

  • The number of for sale listings was up 17% from one year earlier and up 7.9% from the previous month. Comment: More inventory available.
  • The number of sold listings decreased 11.8% year over year and decreased 3% month over month. Comment: less inventory selling.
  • The number of under contract listings was up 11.5% compared to previous month and up 1.7% compared to previous year. Comment: higher activity to get into contract.
  • The Months of Inventory is now 2.1, up 31.4% from the previous year. Comment:  reflects the fact that more inventory is available and less is selling.
  • The Average Sold Price per Square Footage was down 1.2% compared to previous month and up 5.3% compared to last year. Comment: Prices are still trending up but got soft toward end of summer.
  • The Average Sold Price also decreased by 1.5% from last month. Comment: Softness is definitely notable.
  • Based on the 6 month trend, the Average Sold Price trend is “Neutral” and the Median Sold Price trend is “Neutral”.
  • The Average Days on Market showed a neutral trend, an increase of 12% compared to previous year. Comment: Listings are starting to take longer to sell.

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What IS the Market Doing?
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